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House Price Growth
House price growth in Wales turned negative in August as demand slowed sharply, says the latest housing market survey from the RICS.
Welsh house prices declined for the third consecutive month, and new buyer enquiries fell at the fastest pace in the survey’s history. New instructions to sell property fell for the first time since November, through only moderately so, while confidence in the sales outlook turned negative for the first time since June 2004. Surveyors’ confidence in the price outlook also reached the lowest level since July 2005.
Across the rest of the UK, house prices growth turned negative for the first time since October 2005. 1.8% more chartered surveyors reported a fall than rise in house prices, down from 10.8% reporting a rise in July. Demand continued to weaken as rising interest rates weight on buyer affordability. The trend was most prevalent in the West Midlands, the North West and East Anglia. However, London is yet to be affected by credit market turmoil and remains the region with the strongest price growth in England.
New buyer enquiries declined for the ninth consecutive month and at the fastest pace since August 2004 with potential buyers remaining cautious as the effect of interest rate rises filters through. 37% more chartered surveyors reported a fall than a rise in new buyer enquiries compared to 27% in May. New buyer enquiries fell across most regions as demand faltered.
New instructions to sell property fell for the third month in succession. Confidence in household finances remains strong and vendors remain under little pressure to sell. The stock of unsold property on surveyors’ books declined with levels down ten percent on year ago levels. Significantly the numbers of four bedroom houses on the market have declined by 51% on year ago levels, possibly pushed by the August HIPS deadline. However, the ration of completed sales compared to the stock of unsold property increased. Market conditions have been loosening since April, but are now slightly tighter.
Weakening demand, caused by the interest rate cycle, has severely dented surveyor confidence in the outlook for house prices.