England’s Path to the Semi-Finals
England secured their place in the World Cup semi-finals following a 2-1 victory over Norway after extra-time in Miami. This win was largely attributed to a strong performance from Jude Bellingham, who scored a controversial equaliser before half-time, bringing the score to 1-1 after 90 minutes. Bellingham then netted another goal early in extra-time, giving the Three Lions the advantage they maintained until the final whistle.
The journey to the semi-finals for Thomas Tuchel‘s side included several key matches. In their group stage, England defeated Croatia 4-2 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on 17 June, drew 0-0 with Ghana at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on 23 June, and secured a 2-0 win against Panama at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on 27 June.
Moving into the knockout stages, England overcame DR Congo with a 2-1 victory in the Round of 32 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on 1 July. Their Round of 16 match saw them triumph over Mexico with a 3-2 scoreline at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on 5 July, before their quarter-final win against Norway at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on 11 July.
Upcoming Semi-Final Fixture
The semi-final match will see England face Argentina, who also advanced after a dramatic quarter-final win against Switzerland, which went into extra-time. This highly anticipated clash is scheduled to take place on Wednesday, 15 July, at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Kick-off is set for 8pm BST (3pm ET).
The winner of this semi-final will proceed to the final on 19 July, where they will meet either France or Spain at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. This final match will determine the ultimate champion of the tournament.
World Cup Simulation Insights
A simulation conducted by the University of Reading suggests that England‘s chances of winning the World Cup have increased during the tournament. Initially, Thomas Tuchel‘s team had a 9% chance of success, which has now risen to 15%. Despite this increase, Argentina is currently considered the most likely team to lift the trophy, with a 36% chance, followed by Spain at 18% and France at 17%.
Professor James Reade, a sports economist who developed the prediction model, noted that England‘s strong performance and the elimination of teams like Brazil have positively impacted their prospects. He indicated that if England progresses past Argentina, they would most likely face either Spain or France in the final. The simulation model estimates the attacking and defensive strengths of nations based on international matches played since January 2023, and it repeats the entire knockout bracket simulation 10,000 times to generate probability estimates.
The simulation also explored various outcomes, including the probability of all four top-seeded teams—France, Argentina, England, and Spain—reaching the semi-finals, which stands at 28%. Conversely, the chance of none of these top four teams making it to the semi-finals is only 0.5%. The most probable final outcome predicted by the simulation is a match between Spain and Argentina, with a 23% likelihood, followed by France versus Argentina at 21%. The least likely final scenario is between Norway and Morocco, with a 0.5% chance.
Professor Reade’s research, published in 2025, also includes an award-winning study on penalty kicks, suggesting that penalty takers should aim high and wide for a better chance of success from 12 yards. The upcoming semi-final between England and Argentina is scheduled for 15 July.
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Source: independent.co.uk
